Three-way moneylines, draw no bet and Asian handicaps explained
Football betting confuses American bettors for one reason — the draw. How the three-way line works, how the bookmaker's margin hides in it, and the markets built to remove the draw.
If you learned to bet on American sports, football has one feature that breaks your instincts: a match can end level, and that is a result, not a push.
The three-way line (1X2)
The standard football market has three outcomes: home win (1), draw (X), away win (2). Back the home side and the match ends 1–1, and you have lost.
It is settled on 90 minutes plus stoppage time. In a cup tie that goes to extra time and penalties, the three-way market was already settled as a draw at the end of normal time. Check your book's rules for anything unusual, but that is the norm.
Decimal prices and implied probability
Most football prices are quoted in decimals. A price of 2.50 returns $2.50 for every $1 staked, stake included — a profit of $1.50. The implied probability is simply one divided by the price: 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%.
Where the margin hides
Take a real-looking line: home 2.10, draw 3.40, away 3.60. The implied probabilities are 47.6%, 29.4% and 27.8%. They add up to 104.8%. The extra 4.8% is the bookmaker's margin — the overround.
To see what the market actually thinks, divide each figure by the total: 45.4%, 28.1%, 26.5%. Those are the margin-free probabilities, and they are what 4Futbol shows in bold wherever it shows a price. A three-way market has three prices to shade rather than two, so its margin is typically larger than on a two-way American line.
Markets that remove the draw
Draw no bet. Two outcomes. If the match is drawn, your stake is returned. You get a shorter price than on the three-way line in exchange for that insurance.
Double chance. You back two of the three outcomes at once — home or draw, away or draw, home or away. Short prices, high strike rate.
Asian handicap. One side is given a head start in goals, which removes the draw altogether.
- A −0.5 handicap means your team must win. A +0.5 means it must not lose.
- A −1 handicap means your team must win by two to win the bet; a one-goal win returns your stake.
- Quarter lines split your stake across two bets. At −0.75, half is on −0.5 and half on −1: win by one goal and you win half and get half back; win by two and you win it all.
Totals and both teams to score
Over/under 2.5 goals is the standard totals line; the half-goal means there is no push. Both teams to score is exactly what it says, and is popular because a bet on it is not killed by a late collapse.
Closing lines, and why we show them
The closing line is the last price before kick-off. It is widely treated as the market's best estimate, because by then it has absorbed team news and the weight of money. For the European leagues we carry opening and closing prices; for Liga MX, Argentina and Brazil we carry closing prices only — no free source prices their upcoming fixtures — and show them against what actually happened.
On every club page you will also find a betting trends box: that club's record this season when it closed as the favourite and as the underdog, how often its matches went over 2.5 goals, and how often both teams scored. It describes the past. It does not predict anything.
The necessary part
4Futbol does not take bets and is not a sportsbook. Prices are shown for information only, betting is for adults — 21 and over where it is legal in the United States, and the law differs by state — and if it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.