Czechia vs. Spain
Czechia7%▼ 1
Draw12%▼ 1
Spain82%▲ 1
Install
Ballon d'Or Top 2 Finish 2026
The odds
>99%Harry Kane
- Harry Kane>99%▲ 12
- Kylian Mbappé>99%▲ 22
- Michael Olise5%▼ 2
- Achraf Hakimi1%
- Sadio Mané1%▼ 1
- William Saliba1%
- João Neves1%
- Gabriel Magalhães1%▼ 1
- Declan Rice1%▼ 1
- Dayot Upamecano1%▼ 1
- Vinícius Júnior<1%▼ 1
- Marquinhos<1%▼ 1
18 more
- Nuno Mendes<1%
- Julián Quiñones<1%
- Pau Cubarsi<1%▼ 2
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia<1%▼ 10
- Lionel Messi<1%▼ 7
- Ferran Torres<1%▼ 4
- Rodri<1%▼ 2
- Bruno Fernandes<1%
- Willian Pacho<1%
- Lamine Yamal<1%▼ 31
- Fabian Ruiz<1%▼ 1
- Ousmane Dembélé<1%▼ 2
- Erling Haaland<1%▼ 1
- Jude Bellingham<1%
- Vitinha<1%
- Luis Diaz<1%▼ 2
- Lautaro Martinez<1%
- Marc Cucurella<1%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Harry Kane: 94% on Oct 20, >99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 9 PM ETHarry Kane: 88% → >99%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | >99% | ▲ 12 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $10.1K | |
| Kylian Mbappé | >99% | ▲ 22 | 100¢ | 100¢ | $23.9K | |
| Michael Olise | 5% | ▼ 2 | 10¢ | $9.90 | $2.3K | |
| Achraf Hakimi | 1% | 3¢ | $37.04 | $520 | ||
| Sadio Mané | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | $52.63 | $609 | |
| William Saliba | 1% | 2¢ | $62.50 | $437 | ||
| João Neves | 1% | 1¢ | $76.92 | $478 | ||
| Gabriel Magalhães | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $90.91 | $3.6K | |
| Declan Rice | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | $573 | |
| Dayot Upamecano | 1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $100.00 | $464 | |
| Vinícius Júnior | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $764 | ||
| Marquinhos | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | $465 | ||
| Nuno Mendes | <1% | 1¢ | $776 | |||
| Julián Quiñones | <1% | 1¢ | $586 | |||
| Pau Cubarsi | <1% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | $831 | ||
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | <1% | ▼ 10 | 1¢ | $1.2K | ||
| Lionel Messi | <1% | ▼ 7 | 1¢ | $4K | ||
| Ferran Torres | <1% | ▼ 4 | 1¢ | $283 | ||
| Rodri | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $2.9K | ||
| Bruno Fernandes | <1% | 0¢ | $4K | |||
| Willian Pacho | <1% | 0¢ | $3.7K | |||
| Lamine Yamal | <1% | ▼ 31 | 0¢ | $43.7K | ||
| Fabian Ruiz | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $550 | ||
| Ousmane Dembélé | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $2.4K | ||
| Erling Haaland | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $235 | ||
| Jude Bellingham | <1% | 0¢ | $1.9K | |||
| Vitinha | <1% | 0¢ | $1.1K | |||
| Luis Diaz | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $550 | ||
| Lautaro Martinez | <1% | 0¢ | $2.9K | |||
| Marc Cucurella | <1% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | $703 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ballon d'Or, Ballon d'Or Top Finish, Harry Kane
Search ›- Kane beat Mbappe to Ballon d'Or by just 28 points'My heart was beating so fast' - Kane wins Ballon D'or Harry Kane beat second-placed Kylian Mbappe to the men's Ballon d'Or by just 28 points - one of the smallest winning margins in the award's history. Organisers released voting numbers…
- Ballon d'Or tie-break rule explained with Kylian Mbappe threatening Harry Kane-Lamine Yamal top twoMbappe's odds have slashed from 14/1 to 2/1 in recent days. We are just hours away from finding out the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner as favourites Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe and Lamine Yamal do battle for the biggest individual prize in…
- Revealed: Scottish journalist did not include Kylian Mbappe in his Ballon d'Or voting - separately, investigation launched into suspicious bets that returned £149,000 and predicted Harry Kane's gloryBy NATHAN SALT - FOOTBALL REPORTER Kylian Mbappe was a shock top-10 omission from Scotland's Ballon d'Or vote as scrutiny continues to surround Harry Kane's victory, including the launch of an investigation into suspicious bets. Kane and…
- Harry Kane says Ballon d’Or winning tweet wasn’t directed at Lamine Yamal or Kylian MbappéFC Bayern’s Ballon d’Or winner had to clarify what he said to avoid misunderstandings When Harry Kane won the Ballon d’Or, his first tweet after the victory was: “Work hard in silence, let success be your noise.” People assumed this was…
- Ballon d'Or: Countries that voted for Harry Kane revealedThe countries that voted for Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or have been revealed. Kane won this year's Ballon d'Or ahead of Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappé and Barcelona's Lamine Yamal. The England international won…
- Ballon d'Or 2026 voting breakdown: Harry Kane edges out Kylian Mbappe in incredibly tight race as full scores revealedHarry Kane has officially ended England's long wait for a Ballon d'Or winner, but the full voting breakdown reveals just how close the Bayern Munich striker came to missing out. The former Tottenham talisman secured the prestigious Golden…
- Tiniest of margins! Ballon d'Or chief reveals how Harry Kane SNATCHED Golden Ball from Kylian Mbappe in dramatic late voting surgeHarry Kane has officially been crowned the world's best player, but the Bayern Munich striker only secured the Ballon d'Or by the narrowest of margins. New revelations from French Football chief Vincent Garcia suggest that the England…
- Kane presents Ballon d'Or to Bayern fansWATCH MORE: Football video Kane presents Ballon d'Or to Bayern fans. Video, 00:00:29Kane presents Ballon d'Or to Bayern fans Up Next. Kane's Ballon d'Or success 'a win for football' - Coady. Video, 00:01:06Kane's Ballon d'Or success 'a win…
- Harry Kane Pips Kylian Mbappe By 28 Votes To Win His First Ballon d'OrHarry Kane won the Ballon d’Or by the smallest margin under its current voting system when he edged Kylian Mbappe by 28 points, France Football which runs the awards, revealed on Friday. The magazine published a breakdown of the votes in…
- Ballon d'Or 2026 results: Full points breakdown as Harry Kane beats Kylian Mbappe by one of the smallest margins everHarry Kane won the 2026 Men’s Ballon d’Or after finishing just 28 points ahead of Kylian Mbappe, in one of the tightest races the award has seen. The Bayern Munich striker became the first English winner in 25 years, while Bayern…
- Guti makes 'coincidence' claim about Ballon d'Or as he points out Harry Kane's immediate reaction to winning awardThe former Real Madrid midfielder is far from convinced by Kane's win. Guti has questioned the legitimacy of this year's Ballon d'Or result, describing it as an "incredible coincidence" that Harry Kane won the award after the ceremony was…
- Harry Kane does everything but score in his first game since winning the Ballon d'OrMunich's Harry Kane reacts after the German Bundesliga soccer match between FC Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in Munich, Germany, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026. Credit: AP/Sven Hoppe Kane hit the crossbar instead of scoring as his first…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Futbol. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Futbol, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Futbol index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Futbol Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions