Who will attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?

Polymarket Futbol › Futbol Closes Nov 30 · $53.8K today · $235K traded · $19.4K at stake · prices read 14 days ago

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The odds

>99%Lamine Yamal

Lamine Yamal>99%▲ 1
Harry Kane>99%▲ 2
Ousmane Dembélé>99%▲ 16
Rodri>99%▲ 2
Michael Owen>99%▲ 22
Kylian Mbappé99%▲ 3
David Beckham2%▼ 58
Xavi Hernandez1%▼ 3
Kaka<1%▼ 2
Sergio Ramos<1%▼ 6
Cristiano Ronaldo<1%▼ 3
Zinedine Zidane<1%▼ 72

2 more

Vinícius Júnior<1%▼ 56
Lionel Messi<1%▼ 8

How the odds have moved

Lamine Yamal: 95% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Lamine Yamal	>99%	▲ 1	100¢	100¢		$5.3K
Harry Kane	>99%	▲ 2	100¢	100¢		$5.7K
Ousmane Dembélé	>99%	▲ 16	100¢	100¢		$25.1K
Rodri	>99%	▲ 2	100¢	100¢		$11.2K
Michael Owen	>99%	▲ 22	99¢	100¢		$5.9K
Kylian Mbappé	99%	▲ 3	99¢	100¢		$10.8K
David Beckham	2%	▼ 58		3¢	$30.30	$10K
Xavi Hernandez	1%	▼ 3		1¢	$100.00	$6.8K
Kaka	<1%	▼ 2		1¢		$10.1K
Sergio Ramos	<1%	▼ 6		1¢		$15.2K
Cristiano Ronaldo	<1%	▼ 3		0¢		$26.7K
Zinedine Zidane	<1%	▼ 72		0¢		$31.8K
Vinícius Júnior	<1%	▼ 56		0¢		$25.2K
Lionel Messi	<1%	▼ 8		0¢		$45.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ballon d'Or, Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane

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Lamine Yamal’s model girlfriend Ines Garcia shares unsettling update on herpes diagnosisCalifornia Post · 43 h agoLamine Yamal never seems to be cold or sore on the soccer field. The 19-year-old is a few months removed from winning the 2026 World Cup with Spain and is currently tearing up La Liga with FC Barcelona, tallying 10 goals and 7 assists in…
‘Worth half a goal’ – Fermin Lopez hails Lamine Yamal’s assist as Barcelona beat AtleticoYahoo Sports · 2 days agoFermin Lopez hailed Lamine Yamal for his excellent pass that set up Barcelona's winner in a 2-1 victory over Atletico Madrid on Sunday night in La Liga. Barcelona went behind in the match but hit back through Lopez. The Spain star then…
'I'd give it to Harry Kane!' - Bayern Munich chief Herbert Hainer picks his Ballon d'Or winner over Michael Olise@goal · 2 days agoBayern Munich president Herbert Hainer has weighed in on the race for the Ballon d'Or, choosing between two of the club's most prolific stars. While acknowledging the incredible impact of summer signing Michael Olise, the club chief…
Ballon d'Or winner Harry Kane pens blockbuster new contract at Bayern Munich until 2029tribalfootball.com · 3 days agoBallon d'Or winner Harry Kane has signed a blockbuster new contract at Bayern Munich that will see him remain at the club until 2029, with reports also claiming that he will be the highest-paid player in Europe based on salary. According…
Lamine Yamal’s Girlfriend Shares Concerning Update on Herpes OutbreakTotalProSports · 37 h agoLamine Yamal’s girlfriend posted about a recent herpes outbreak. Lamine Yamal’s girlfriend, Ines Garcia, posted a concerning update about a herpes outbreak. She has been in a relationship with the FC Barcelona and Spain national team…
Zidane backs Mbappé: he was the most deserving of the Ballon d'OrYardbarker · 2 days agoSpecial praise for the Paris star France manager Zinedine Zidane has confirmed that Kylian Mbappé deserved to win the Ballon d'Or. He heaped praise on the Real Madrid forward, who finished second behind England's Harry Kane, named this…
Laporta: Yamal will win the Ballon d'Or, and I accept Kane's crowning in a sporting spirit@goal · 2 days agoA big future awaits the Barcelona star Barcelona president Joan Laporta left London with a defiant message about the Catalan club's future. He backed Lamine Yamal's right to win the Ballon d'Or and insisted the teenager will claim…
Zidane does Mbappé justice: he was the most deserving of the Ballon d'OrYardbarker · 2 days agoSpecial praise for the Paris star Zinedine Zidane, the France national team coach, confirmed that Kylian Mbappé deserved to win the Ballon d'Or, heaping praise on the Real Madrid striker. Mbappé finished second behind England's Harry Kane…
Lamine Yamal's Girlfriend Ines García Posts About Cold Sore OutbreakComplex · 44 h agoThe girlfriend of soccer star Lamine Yamal, Spanish influencer Inés García, is sharing details online about her recurring cold sores. “Yesterday, I woke up with one on my nose,” she wrote. García described the latest flare-up as an…
Muslim Soccer Superstar Lamine Yamal’s GF posts her Herpes OutbreakMedia Take Out · 2 days agoHold onto your seats and grab your sanitizing wipes, because the internet’s soccer fanbases just lost their collective minds over the ultimate overshare! Lamine Yamal, the 19-year-old superstar winger taking Barcelona and global football…
'Wasn't my best' - Ballon d'Or winner Kane disappointed with performance in Dortmund drawtribalfootball.com · 2 days agoBayern Munich striker Harry Kane criticised his own performance in Saturday's 2-2 home draw with Borussia Dortmund, just days after the "incredible high" of winning the Ballon d'Or. The draw leaves Bayern and Dortmund deadlocked on 18…
Barcelona Squad vs Atletico Madrid: Lamine Yamal, Raphinha And Pedri Included As Hansi Flick Welcomes Back Defensive Duo | Check Full List Of PlayersThe Sunday Guardian · 2 days agoBarcelona will travel to the Riyadh Air Metropolitano to face Atletico Madrid in a crucial La Liga 2026-27 Matchday 12 encounter on Sunday, November 8. Manager Hansi Flick has announced his 23-man squad for the high-profile fixture, with…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Futbol. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$235K

Today$53.8K

This week$124K

At stake$19.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to be held in London on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Futbol, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Futbol index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Futbol Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions