Ballon d'Or 2026: 3rd Place

Polymarket Futbol › Futbol Closes Dec 31 · $166K today · $381K traded · $4.9K at stake · prices read 15 days ago

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The odds

>99%Lamine Yamal
  • Lamine Yamal>99%▲ 34
  • Harry Kane<1%▼ 5
  • Kylian Mbappé<1%▼ 13
  • Rodri<1%▼ 4
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia<1%▼ 1
  • Lionel Messi<1%▼ 6
  • Fabian Ruiz<1%
  • Ousmane Dembélé<1%▼ 6
  • Pau Cubarsi<1%
  • Erling Haaland<1%
  • Jude Bellingham<1%
  • Michael Olise<1%▼ 2
18 more
  • Vinícius Júnior<1%
  • Declan Rice<1%
  • Vitinha<1%
  • Achraf Hakimi<1%
  • Bruno Fernandes<1%
  • Luis Diaz<1%
  • Lautaro Martinez<1%
  • Marc Cucurella<1%
  • Gabriel Magalhães<1%
  • Sadio Mané<1%
  • Marquinhos<1%
  • Nuno Mendes<1%
  • João Neves<1%
  • Willian Pacho<1%
  • Julián Quiñones<1%
  • William Saliba<1%
  • Ferran Torres<1%
  • Dayot Upamecano<1%

How the odds have moved

Lamine Yamal: 64% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 9 PM ETLamine Yamal: 68% → >99%
  2. Oct 21, 8 PM ETLamine Yamal: 64% → 70%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Lamine Yamal >99% ▲ 34 100¢ 100¢ $179K
Harry Kane <1% ▼ 5 0¢ $22.7K
Kylian Mbappé <1% ▼ 13 0¢ $50.5K
Rodri <1% ▼ 4 0¢ $23.2K
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia <1% ▼ 1 0¢ $17K
Lionel Messi <1% ▼ 6 0¢ $22K
Fabian Ruiz <1% 0¢ $11.4K
Ousmane Dembélé <1% ▼ 6 0¢ $18.8K
Pau Cubarsi <1% 0¢ $50
Erling Haaland <1% 0¢ $8.8K
Jude Bellingham <1% 0¢ $1.7K
Michael Olise <1% ▼ 2 0¢ $16.3K
Vinícius Júnior <1% 0¢ $2K
Declan Rice <1% 0¢ $2.8K
Vitinha <1% 0¢ $2.1K
Achraf Hakimi <1% 0¢ $50
Bruno Fernandes <1% 0¢ $50
Luis Diaz <1% 0¢ $50
Lautaro Martinez <1% 0¢ $1.7K
Marc Cucurella <1% 0¢ $50
Gabriel Magalhães <1% 0¢ $60
Sadio Mané <1% 0¢
Marquinhos <1% 0¢ $50
Nuno Mendes <1% 0¢ $50
João Neves <1% 0¢ $50
Willian Pacho <1% 0¢ $50
Julián Quiñones <1% 0¢ $50
William Saliba <1% 0¢ $50
Ferran Torres <1% 0¢ $60
Dayot Upamecano <1% 0¢ $50

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ballon d'Or, Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Futbol. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Futbol, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Futbol index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Futbol Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions