Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Polymarket Futbol › Futbol Closes Dec 31 · $35.9M today · $104M traded · $12.5M at stake · prices read 15 days ago

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The odds

>99%Harry Kane
  • Harry Kane>99%▲ 30
  • Kylian Mbappé<1%▼ 18
  • Erling Haaland<1%
  • Jude Bellingham<1%
  • Ousmane Dembélé<1%
  • Lamine Yamal<1%▼ 11
  • Vinícius Júnior<1%
  • Michael Olise<1%
  • Declan Rice<1%
  • Khvicha Kvaratskhelia<1%
  • Vitinha<1%
  • Achraf Hakimi<1%
7 more
  • Bruno Fernandes<1%
  • Luis Diaz<1%
  • Lautaro Martinez<1%
  • Lionel Messi<1%▼ 1
  • Rodri<1%
  • Pau Cubarsi<1%
  • Fabian Ruiz<1%

How the odds have moved

Harry Kane: 73% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 26, 10 PM ETHarry Kane: 70% → >99%

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Harry Kane >99% ▲ 30 100¢ 100¢ $15.2M
Kylian Mbappé <1% ▼ 18 0¢ $13.1M
Erling Haaland <1% 0¢ $4.8M
Jude Bellingham <1% 0¢ $1.9M
Ousmane Dembélé <1% 0¢ $8.9M
Lamine Yamal <1% ▼ 11 0¢ $11.4M
Vinícius Júnior <1% 0¢ $1.1M
Michael Olise <1% 0¢ $4.7M
Declan Rice <1% 0¢ $992K
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia <1% 0¢ $8M
Vitinha <1% 0¢ $1M
Achraf Hakimi <1% 0¢ $78K
Bruno Fernandes <1% 0¢ $748K
Luis Diaz <1% 0¢ $469K
Lautaro Martinez <1% 0¢ $516K
Lionel Messi <1% ▼ 1 0¢ $10.8M
Rodri <1% 0¢ $6.8M
Pau Cubarsi <1% 0¢ $1.3M
Fabian Ruiz <1% 0¢ $5.2M
Mohamed Salah <1% 0¢ $1.1M
Pedri <1% 0¢ $887K
Cole Palmer <1% 0¢ $682K
Federico Valverde <1% 0¢ $448K
Julian Alvarez <1% 0¢ $737K
Desire Doue <1% 0¢ $744K
Raphinha <1% 0¢ $696K
Dominik Szoboszlai <1% 0¢ $168K
Cristiano Ronaldo <1% 0¢ $474K
Rodrygo <1% 0¢ $96.1K
Enzo Fernandez <1% 0¢ $75.1K
Bukayo Saka <1% 0¢ $15K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Ballon d'Or, Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Futbol. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Futbol, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Futbol index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Futbol Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions