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Season simulator
Take today's table and the fixtures still to be played, and play out the rest of the season ten thousand times. The share of those seasons in which a club finishes top, in a European place or in the bottom three is its chance of doing so — according to a deliberately simple model that you can inspect below.
Premier League 2026-27
| # | Club | P | Pts | Avg final pts | Title | Att | Def | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 9 | 24 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2 | Man City | 9 | 21 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 19 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 16 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 16 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 15 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 14 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 12 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 9 | Tottenham | 9 | 12 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 12 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 11 | Hull | 9 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 12 | Leeds | 9 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 13 | Newcastle | 9 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 14 | Ipswich | 9 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 9 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 16 | Coventry | 10 | 9 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 17 | Man United | 9 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 19 | Nott'm Forest | 9 | 6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 5 | – | – | – | – | – |
How it works — and what it does not know
- Ratings. Each club gets an attack rating (goals scored per match ÷ the league average) and a defence rating (goals conceded per match ÷ the league average). Early in a season a few matches say little, so both are pulled toward 1.00 by adding six imaginary league-average matches to every club's record. After 5 matches a rating is mostly caution; after 30 it is mostly evidence.
- Expected goals for a fixture. Home side: the league's average home goals (1.52 so far this season) × its attack × the visitors' defence. Away side: the average away goals (1.20) × its attack × the hosts' defence. Home advantage is whatever this league has actually shown this season — nothing is assumed.
- A scoreline. Each side's goals are drawn from a Poisson distribution around that expectation — the standard first model for football scores.
- A season. Every remaining fixture is played once, points are added to the real table, and clubs are ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Then it is done again, 10,000 times.
What it ignores: injuries, transfers, managers, fatigue, European football in midweek, form, and everything else that is not goals scored and conceded so far. It treats goals as independent and it does not apply head-to-head tie-breakers, which La Liga, Serie A and Portugal use first. It is a way to see what the table already implies — not a prediction to bet on.
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Data: OpenLigaDB — Daten von OpenLigaDB (www.openligadb.de), lizenziert unter ODbL 1.0 · openfootball (CC0) · international results (CC0) · Wikidata (CC0) · football-data.co.uk · Fantasy Premier League. How we use each source. Odds are shown for information only — 21+ where legal; please play responsibly. Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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